Hurricane Sandra now a CAT 4

Watch out Baja and Mazatlan - maybe eventually Texas

So far here only overcast for two days and a very light rain this morning. This late season activity is caused by a very strong El Niño which is also strengthened by Global Warming. You Global Warming deniers like most of the US GOP candidates can leave your heads in the sand but don't come crying to me when your life is seriously disrupted. 

Sandra became the latest major hurricane on record to form in the central/eastern Pacific or Atlantic oceans Wednesday afternoon. 

There have now been nine major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific this year, a record for the basin.

Global Warming vs. Climate Change

I find interesting the conversations that come up when trying to answer the question about what might be the cause of this extremely rare weather occurrence that just passed from the Pacific through the middle of Mexico. Most interesting are the deniers who don't seem to believe in Global Warming, Climate Change or even El Niño. For some reason raining when it shouldn't, colder than normal and unusual droughts are better defined as an aberration rather than a pattern ... man made or not. Very strange

There have long been claims that some unspecificed "they" has "changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'". In reality, the two terms mean different things, have both been used for decades, and the only individual to have specifically advocated changing the name in this fashion is a global warming 'skeptic'.

El clima esta loco!

Arroyo Seco was a trickle last Friday

For those that may have missed it, a weather system just came in from the Pacific that dumped 12-14 inches of rain (equal to Hurricane Jova in 2011) on the Jalisco coast over the weekend and continued into Central Mexico. The weather experts say it's a result of  El Niño and the warming of Pacific waters enough to release moisture to the atmosphere. Here we get back to - is ocean warming an aberration or is there a pattern of causation. Then the skeptics say there is no El Niño because an El Niño would break the drought in Texas and California. All I know is nobody remembers much rain in March, let alone a rain equivalent of a hurricane.

Weather system without a name - should have had one

La Manzanilla had 14 inches of rain

I realize we can't run out and do something just because we fear humanity may be doing this to themselves and the planet. Very little an individual can do at all. On the other hand it sounds like science deniers and climate change deniers come to their conclusions from hopelessness. All that does is end the conversation and we might as well throw up our hands.

El Niño is here

Are we in for a bumpy ride this year .... it sure looks like a possibility. Last year the Pacific had 3 times as many named storms as the Atlantic

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre upgraded its assessment from 'El Niño Watch' to 'El Niño Advisory', meaning an event is now occurring.

Simply put, El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin (Figure 1). Conversely, La Niña suppresses hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and enhances it in the Atlantic basin 

Typical influence of El Niño on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity. Map by NOAA Climate.gov

Typical influence of La Niña on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity. Map by NOAA Climate.gov

Average sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific for the week of 25th Feb. Anomalies are relative to 1981-2010 weekly average. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Centre

What is El Niño

Jeff Masters and Kevin Trenberth talk El Nino

Atmosphere 'has finally woken up' as El Niño gets underway in the Pacific

Rain this winter in Jalisco due to El Niño

8 January of 2015.- The months of January, February and March are traditionally dry. However, the first quarter of 2015 could record sporadic rains in Jalisco, due to the presence of El Niño, which occurs when the waters of the Pacific Ocean have an increase in temperature, reported Meulenert Angel Peña, professor and researcher of the Institute Astronomy and Meteorology of the University of Guadalajara (University of Guadalajara).

"If the tropical Pacific warming more than normal, can cause an imbalance in the atmosphere and that imbalance manifests so that in some areas of the planet rain when it's not the rainy season" said the expert.

Entre enero y marzo habría lluvias en Jalisco por El Niño

A little rain two mornings in a row

About eight this morning we had our second morning rain in a row though yesterday was not quite as dramatic. That is, no interesting cloud formations and no rainbows (arco iris or Arcoiris). Looking at the weather for the following week it looks like we may get real rain starting next weekend. It has been overcast here for at least the last week.  A meteorologist from UNAM predicts more rain than normal this winter due to El Niño. We'll see!

Front walk

Kinda rain clouds to the south

Brilliant rainbow to the north

It was actually a double rainbow from horizon to horizon

I borrowed this from the La Manz board - by Sue

The double rainbow I didn't get a good view of