A Crazy Weather Year?

Many people are expecting an unusual weather year mostly due to ocean temperatures being high. The Pacific is supposed to get well more than the Atlantic for named storms but an Invest just popped up off the East coast of the US. At least the Weather Underground labeled it as a Invest but no number yet.

The Atlantic hurricane season doesn't start until the end of May so the National Hurricane Center may not become active even with an early storm. On our Pacific side we have two more weeks before the season starts. Tracking storms is interesting and exciting but you can end up very sorry when they land on your doorstep. Let's hope this year is not too crazy.

The first week of May is usually too early for the Atlantic to see its first named storm, but that is a possibility this year, according to the Friday morning runs of the GFS and European models. These models predict that an extratropical storm will form along an old cold frontal boundary over the Bahama Islands just east of the coast of Florida on Tuesday, then drift slowly northwards towards North Carolina during the week. Ocean temperatures are near 26°C (79°F), which is about 1.7°C (3°F) above average for this time of year, and just at the limit of where a tropical storm can form.

An Atlantic Named Storm Coming for the First Week of May?

El Niño is here

Are we in for a bumpy ride this year .... it sure looks like a possibility. Last year the Pacific had 3 times as many named storms as the Atlantic

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre upgraded its assessment from 'El Niño Watch' to 'El Niño Advisory', meaning an event is now occurring.

Simply put, El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin (Figure 1). Conversely, La Niña suppresses hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and enhances it in the Atlantic basin 

Typical influence of El Niño on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity. Map by NOAA Climate.gov

Typical influence of La Niña on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity. Map by NOAA Climate.gov

Average sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific for the week of 25th Feb. Anomalies are relative to 1981-2010 weekly average. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Centre

What is El Niño

Jeff Masters and Kevin Trenberth talk El Nino

Atmosphere 'has finally woken up' as El Niño gets underway in the Pacific

Rain this winter in Jalisco due to El Niño

8 January of 2015.- The months of January, February and March are traditionally dry. However, the first quarter of 2015 could record sporadic rains in Jalisco, due to the presence of El Niño, which occurs when the waters of the Pacific Ocean have an increase in temperature, reported Meulenert Angel Peña, professor and researcher of the Institute Astronomy and Meteorology of the University of Guadalajara (University of Guadalajara).

"If the tropical Pacific warming more than normal, can cause an imbalance in the atmosphere and that imbalance manifests so that in some areas of the planet rain when it's not the rainy season" said the expert.

Entre enero y marzo habría lluvias en Jalisco por El Niño

A Weather Sandwich

We get storms on opposite coasts now and then and sometimes the weather becomes pretty interesting. These two don't look all that serious but really you never know. It is something to think about when you are gong to fly out within the next week. Seemingly unrelated to the distant Invest 93E is today's weather in the bottom graphic. Actually not all that uncommon this time of year and the wind and rain has started from that big red/pink blob.

Pacific 5 day potential

Atlantic 5 day potential

Today Monday the first of September

Melaque is right in the middle of graphic

Hurricane season almost here

Evidently this is a yearly event about this time of year. I was searching for further info on today's activities and found 2 from previous years. What it is, is a Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the US has an open house at the Manzanillo airport (ZLO). They are probably making stops up and down the coast. Pacific Hurricane season starts May 15 and we are almost there again.

My neighbors have only been to the airport once when we picked up a lost Gringa a few months ago.   I figured this would be an education for both of us so of we went combined with a stop in Cihuatlan.  The problem was I had no idea this would be so popular and we found 100's of people waiting.   The schedule said Noon to 6PM but dignitaries and special people got to take the tour first.   Then the couple hundred who got there early had to register, be given a pass and ushered through at 30 in a group.  Not only would the wait be well over an hour  but standing in line in the sun was not on our to-do-list. So we sized up the crowd, took a few pictures through the fence and headed back north.   If I remember next year I'll go later in the day when things have calmed down.

From out by the drive

A little closer through the fence

Lineup to enter the rear

Line of people a couple hundred yards long

First LOW of the Tropical Season

Well this one is right on time and the Tropical Weather season starts tomorrow on the Pacific. Seems like we had an even earlier one last year. When a storm is this young it's hard to tell which way it will head but speculation is West/NW and out to sea. It's been named Invest 90E and may become a storm by Thursday.

What is also interesting is the humidity has risen dramatically in the last week, overcast all day and the refreshing breezes we were experiencing have faded.

From this morning

From 2 this afternoon

The remnants of Ernesto

As of this morning most of Ernesto's weather system has passed over Mexico to the Pacific. Even tho the heart of the tropical depression is near the coast of Guerrero we have a solid cloud cover here in Jalisco. I just hope whatever it does next it does it slowly so not to disrupt flight plans tomorrow afternoon.

Hurricanes that cross over are rare with the last Atlantic to Pacific being Earl in 2004. Tropical Storm Hermine in 2010 went in the other direction, from the Pacific to the Gulf and continued to the US. Crossover storms will be reclassified and renamed as they enter their new domain